Risk Disclosure
1. General Risk Warning
Treemoondus provides algorithmic trading software for prediction markets. The use of this software involves significant financial risk. Prediction market trading is speculative in nature and carries a high degree of risk.
Before using Treemoondus or trading with real capital, you should carefully consider your financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance.
2. No Financial Advice
Treemoondus is a software tool, not a licensed financial advisor, broker, or investment manager. Nothing on this website or within our software constitutes financial advice, investment recommendations, or solicitation to trade.
All trading decisions are yours alone. You are solely responsible for all trading activity in your account.
3. Paper Trading vs Live Trading
Our system defaults to paper trading mode using simulated markets and hypothetical capital. Paper trading results do not reflect actual trading results and may differ substantially from live trading performance due to:
- Real market liquidity constraints — paper trades assume perfect fills that may not be achievable in live markets
- Slippage — real orders may execute at worse prices than simulated
- Platform fees — Kalshi and other exchanges charge fees that reduce real returns
- Market impact — placing real orders may move prices against you
- Technical failures — internet outages, API errors, and software bugs can cause real losses
4. Specific Risks of Prediction Market Making
- Adverse selection risk: Informed traders with inside information may trade against your quotes before you can react
- Inventory risk: One-sided fills can leave you with concentrated exposure to a single market outcome
- Liquidity risk: Low-volume markets may not provide enough counterparty flow to unwind positions
- Resolution risk: Markets may resolve in unexpected ways, instantly moving your positions to zero
- Platform risk: Kalshi or other exchanges may experience outages, change their APIs, or cease operations
- Regulatory risk: The regulatory environment for prediction markets may change, potentially restricting trading
- Technical risk: Software bugs, network failures, or incorrect configuration may cause unintended trading behavior
5. Capital at Risk
You should only trade with capital you can afford to lose entirely. We recommend:
- Starting with a small amount ($100-$500) to validate the system with real money before scaling
- Never allocating more than 5-10% of your total investable assets to prediction market trading
- Maintaining emergency reserves entirely separate from your trading capital
- Treating all trading capital as money you have already decided you can afford to lose
6. No Guarantee of Returns
Treemoondus makes no representation that any user will or is likely to achieve profits similar to those shown in paper trading demonstrations. The market making strategy has theoretical merit based on established quantitative finance principles, but real-world performance depends on many factors outside our control.
7. Regulatory Compliance
Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC. Users are responsible for ensuring their use of Treemoondus complies with all applicable laws and regulations in their jurisdiction. Trading prediction markets may be restricted in certain jurisdictions.
8. Contact
If you have questions about this risk disclosure, please contact us at treemoondus@gmail.com.